A calculator that can deal with distributions ergonomically, to allow users to easily arrive at fermi estimates that incorporate uncertainty.
Tips:
■ The boxes represent the 90% confidence interval (5% to 95%) of your distributions
■ Swipe left or right to duplicate an input
Try this example estimating the number of grams lost with a month of exercise lifting:
10 to 30 kg lifted per exercise
× 0.25 to 0.75 meters lifted per exercise
× 9.81 gravitational constant, to get to Jules (swipe left at the bottom to duplicate the input)
× 10 reps per set
× 3 to 4 sets per exercise
÷ 15% 35%, wild guess on chemical to physical efficiency conversion
÷ 4, jules to calories
÷ 6K to 8K, calories burnt to lose one gram of fat
× 7 to 15 exercises in a gym session
× 2 to 4 times a week
× 4 weeks a month
÷ 10% to 30%, wild guess for share of loss that is due to the direct physical exercise
(as opposed to higher burn rate, cost of building muscles, etc.)
= ¿ to ? grams lost with the above exercise regime in a month
